عنوان مقاله [English]
The future, the outcome, and the result of interacting are many key factors in a complex and dynamic system. The first step in identifying future images is to know the system being studied. The purpose of the study is to identify the effective and effective components of the system and determine the weight and probable position of each component in making alternate realities of the future.
In this research, 86 effective key factors were extracted through reviewing the sources and interviewing experts. Then, referring to the Expert Panel, 34 more important key factors (having a greater impact on the future of the entertainment industry in the National TV) were identified; then, in a two-step Delphi process, sixteen key factors (with the highest significance and uncertainty about the research topic) were counted. Finally, while analyzing the interactions between the agents, 6 of the potential drivers of the future of this industry were determined through the consensus of experts on the national television platform. These include "media competition and diversity," the economic well-being of the people (the audience), the development of converging and interactive technologies, the ability to finance national television, the development of the entertainment industry in Iran and the world, and the " The political culture of the country ". Also, the impact and effectiveness of the key components as well as the severity of the communication between them, using the micro-macro software has been analyzed and analyzed.
Entertainment drivers, Media, Islamic Republic of Iran national TV, Futures Studies.